ExperimentorDie.com

My creative playground. A smorgasbord of randomness.

Geniuses Fail More Than You Do

Quantity Begets Quality

Quantity Begets
Quality

The greatest creators didn’t have a better hit rate. They just produced more.

Simonton’s Equal-Odds Rule — Dean Keith Simonton studied the output of classical composers, scientists, and other creative figures across centuries of data. His finding was striking: the ratio of hits to misses stayed roughly constant across a creator’s career. The people we remember as geniuses didn’t have a higher batting average — they just stepped up to the plate more often. A creator’s best work appeared at random within their total output. The single strongest predictor of having a masterpiece was not talent, not timing, not connections — it was volume.

Nobel Prize Winners — Simonton extended this finding to Nobel laureates in science. The winners weren’t people who carefully selected one brilliant research question and nailed it. They were prolific publishers who produced a massive body of work, much of it unremarkable. Their breakthroughs emerged from the noise. They couldn’t predict in advance which paper would change the field — and neither could anyone else.

“All truth passes through three stages: first, it is ridiculed; second, it is violently opposed; third, it is accepted as self-evident.”
— ARTHUR SCHOPENHAUER
“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up familiar with it.”
— MAX PLANCK
Shakespeare
37 plays
Wrote 37 plays and 154 sonnets. We regularly perform maybe 10 of them. The rest — Timon of Athens, Pericles, King John — are footnotes. Even Shakespeare produced work that didn’t land. But he kept writing, and the volume is what gave us Hamlet, Macbeth, and King Lear.
Beethoven
700+ works
Composed over 700 works across his career. Most people know maybe a dozen. But the key detail: Beethoven actively disliked at least 8 of his own pieces and released them anyway. He thought some of his published work was subpar — and he shipped it regardless. He didn’t wait for perfection. He put it out and moved on to the next one.
Bob Dylan
500+ songs
Released over 500 songs across nearly 40 studio albums. Most people can name maybe 15-20 of them. For every “Blowin’ in the Wind” or “Like a Rolling Stone,” there are dozens of tracks that never entered public consciousness. Dylan kept writing through dry spells, through bad reviews, through entire decades critics wrote off as mediocre.
Picasso
13,800+
Created over 12,000 drawings, 1,800 paintings, 1,200 sculptures, and 2,800 ceramics. The number most people can name? Maybe five. Guernica, The Old Guitarist, a few others. The overwhelming majority of his output is unknown to the general public. He didn’t create selectively — he created constantly.
Edison
1,093 patents
Held 1,093 patents — more than almost anyone in American history. Ask someone to name Edison’s inventions and you’ll get the lightbulb, the phonograph, maybe the motion picture camera. That’s three. The other 1,090 are forgotten. His lab notebooks reveal that for every successful invention, there were dozens of abandoned failures that never saw daylight.
Einstein
248 papers
Published 248 scientific papers. His miracle year in 1905 produced special relativity, the photoelectric effect, and Brownian motion — the papers that rewrote physics. But he spent the last 30 years of his career chasing a unified field theory that went absolutely nowhere. Even Einstein burned decades on a dead end.
Mozart
600+ pieces
Composed over 600 works in a career that started when he was five and ended with his death at 35. Even classical music scholars consider a significant portion of his output to be workmanlike — competent but not extraordinary. The sublime pieces that define his legacy are a fraction of the total body.
Bach
1,000+
Wrote over 1,000 compositions — cantatas, fugues, concertos, chorales. Most people, even classical music fans, can name maybe 5 to 10. The Toccata and Fugue in D Minor, the Cello Suites, the Brandenburg Concertos. The remaining 990+ sit in archives, performed occasionally by specialists.
Bruce Springsteen — Born to Run
Springsteen spent 14 months recording Born to Run, agonizing over every track. Six of those months were spent on the title track alone, which ended up with 72 tracks of recorded music squeezed onto a 16-track mixing console. When he finally heard the finished album in a hotel room in Kutztown, Pennsylvania, he hated it so much he threw the tape into the swimming pool. His own words: “After it was finished? I hated it! I couldn’t stand to listen to it. I thought it was the worst piece of garbage I’d ever heard.” Co-producer Jon Landau had to talk him off the ledge, telling him: “Look, you’re not supposed to like it. You think Chuck Berry sits around listening to ‘Maybellene’? And when he does hear it, don’t you think he wishes a few things could be changed? Now c’mon, it’s time to put the record out.” The album went on to define his career, land him on the covers of both Time and Newsweek simultaneously, and is widely considered one of the greatest rock albums ever made.
Franz Kafka — The Trial, The Castle
Kafka explicitly instructed his friend Max Brod to burn all of his unpublished manuscripts after his death. He meant it — he considered the work unfinished, unworthy, and not fit for the public. Brod ignored the request entirely and published everything. The Trial and The Castle became two of the most important novels of the 20th century. Kafka’s name became synonymous with an entire literary genre. He died in 1924 believing his life’s work was garbage.
Igor Stravinsky — The Rite of Spring
When The Rite of Spring premiered in Paris in 1913, the audience literally rioted. People screamed, threw things, and fought in the aisles. Critics savaged it. The dissonant rhythms and primal choreography were considered so offensive that police had to be called. Stravinsky reportedly fled the theater. That same piece is now considered one of the most revolutionary and influential compositions of the 20th century, and is a staple of orchestral repertoire worldwide.
Herman Melville — Moby-Dick
When Moby-Dick was published in 1851, it was a commercial disaster. It sold poorly, got mixed-to-hostile reviews, and fell out of print. Melville spent the remaining 40 years of his life in obscurity, working as a customs inspector in New York. He died in 1891 believing his greatest work had been a failure. It wasn’t rediscovered and celebrated as a masterpiece until the 1920s — three decades after his death.
F. Scott Fitzgerald — The Great Gatsby
Fitzgerald considered The Great Gatsby a profound disappointment. It sold about 20,000 copies in its first year — far below his expectations and his previous novel’s performance. By the time Fitzgerald died in 1940, he believed it was essentially forgotten. Then the U.S. military distributed 150,000 copies to soldiers during WWII as part of the Armed Services Editions. It became a sensation. It’s now considered the Great American Novel.
Andy Warhol
~85,000 works
Warhol didn’t just make art — he industrialized it. He called his studio “The Factory” and meant it literally. Assistants produced silkscreens while Warhol directed. He simultaneously ran a film studio (producing over 60 films), a magazine (Interview), a music management operation (The Velvet Underground), and a publishing operation. He deliberately rejected the idea that art required solitary, precious craftsmanship. His entire philosophy was that volume and mechanical reproduction were the point, not the enemy.
Thomas Edison
1,093 patents
Menlo Park was literally called “the invention factory.” Edison didn’t work alone in a garage — he ran teams of engineers and machinists working on parallel problems simultaneously. He systematized the process of invention itself, setting up what was essentially an R&D lab decades before the concept existed in corporate America. The inventions that came out of that factory changed the world. The hundreds that didn’t were just the cost of doing business.
James Patterson
300+ books · 305M copies sold
Patterson has published over 300 books since 1976 — roughly one every 6 weeks — and has sold more than 305 million copies worldwide. He’s had 114 New York Times bestsellers, 67 of which hit #1, both records. His system: he writes a detailed chapter-by-chapter outline, hands it to one of his 30+ co-authors to draft, then revises the manuscript to match his voice. He’s completely open about it. Stephen King called him “a terrible writer” who’s “very successful.” Patterson’s response was to keep publishing. At one point, his books accounted for 1 in every 17 hardcover novels sold in the United States. His first novel was rejected by 31 publishers. He didn’t have a bestseller until age 40.
Tom Clancy
17 solo novels · 100M+ copies · dozens branded
Clancy wrote 17 novels himself and sold over 100 million copies. Seventeen hit the top of the New York Times bestseller list. But his name became a brand that extended far beyond what he personally wrote. The “Tom Clancy’s” label spawned entire series written by other authors — Op-Center (19 books), Net Force (10 books), Splinter Cell (7 books), Ghost Recon, EndWar, and more. He launched major video game franchises: Rainbow Six, Ghost Recon, Splinter Cell, The Division. After his death in 2013, new Jack Ryan novels kept coming, written entirely by other authors under his name. His publisher called authors like Clancy “repeaters” — writers who could produce annually and anchor the publishing list. He started as an insurance agent. His first novel, The Hunt for Red October, was published by a small academic press for a $5,000 advance. He’d hoped to sell 5,000 copies. Then Ronald Reagan called it “the perfect yarn,” and it sold millions.
Galileo Galilei
Championed the heliocentric model — that the Earth revolves around the sun — based on his telescope observations. The Catholic Church considered this heresy. In 1633, the Roman Inquisition found him “vehemently suspect of heresy,” forced him to recant, and sentenced him to house arrest for the rest of his life. He spent his final 9 years confined to his villa, going blind, and died in 1642 still under the Church’s condemnation. It took the Vatican until 1992 — 350 years — to formally acknowledge they were wrong.
Nicolaus Copernicus
Developed his heliocentric theory over decades but refused to publish it because he knew the backlash would be devastating. His book De Revolutionibus was finally published in 1543 — legend has it that a copy was placed in his hands on the day he died. He literally waited until he couldn’t face the consequences to release his life’s work.
Alfred Wegener
Proposed continental drift in 1912 — the idea that the continents were once connected and had slowly moved apart. Geologists ridiculed him for decades. He was a meteorologist, not a geologist, and the establishment dismissed him as an outsider who didn’t understand the field. He died in 1930 on an expedition in Greenland. Plate tectonics wasn’t accepted by the scientific community until the 1960s, more than 30 years after his death.
Nikola Tesla
Championed alternating current (AC) as the future of electrical power distribution. His former employer, Thomas Edison, ran a vicious public campaign against AC — including publicly electrocuting animals to “prove” that AC was deadly dangerous. Edison called it “the executioner’s current.” Tesla was right. AC became the global standard for power distribution. Tesla died alone in a New York hotel room in 1943, largely broke, feeding pigeons in the park.
Rachel Carson
Published Silent Spring in 1962, warning that pesticides like DDT were devastating ecosystems and endangering human health. The chemical industry mobilized against her immediately. They called her hysterical, unqualified, and a communist. Monsanto published a parody of her work. Industry groups questioned her credentials as an unmarried woman, implying she was emotionally unstable. She testified before Congress while privately battling breast cancer. She died in 1964, two years after publication. The EPA was created in 1970 largely because of the movement her book started. DDT was banned in 1972.
John Snow
In 1854, during a cholera outbreak in London, Snow traced the infections to a single contaminated water pump on Broad Street. The prevailing theory at the time — “miasma,” the idea that disease came from bad air — was dominant, and the medical establishment refused to take him seriously. Snow removed the pump handle himself. The outbreak stopped. But the medical community still didn’t accept waterborne disease theory during his lifetime. He died in 1858 with his work largely unrecognized. Germ theory eventually proved him right.
Clair Patterson
Patterson was a geochemist at Caltech trying to determine the age of the Earth using lead isotope dating. He kept finding lead contamination in everything — his equipment, his samples, the air, the water, the dust. He realized that industrial lead from gasoline was poisoning the entire environment. When he published his findings in 1965, the Ethyl Corporation — a conglomerate backed by General Motors, Standard Oil, and DuPont — came after him. Their chief medical advisor, Robert Kehoe, had spent 40 years building the scientific case that leaded gasoline was safe, funded entirely by the lead industry. Kehoe held an almost complete monopoly on lead-safety data for half a century. Ethyl allegedly offered to endow a chair at Caltech if they fired Patterson. His contracts with the U.S. Public Health Service were not renewed. He was removed from government panels and denied funding from supposedly neutral research organizations. Patterson fought them for 20 years. He built one of the first clean rooms in history to produce uncontaminated data. He compared lead levels in modern humans to 1,600-year-old Peruvian mummies and found a 700- to 1,200-fold increase. His work eventually led to the phaseout of leaded gasoline under the Clean Air Act. After the ban, blood-lead levels in Americans dropped by 80%.
Barbara McClintock
By the early 1950s, McClintock was already one of the most accomplished geneticists alive. She had been elected to the National Academy of Sciences at 42 — only the third woman ever — and was the first female president of the Genetics Society of America. Then, in 1951, she stood up at the Cold Spring Harbor Symposium and presented her discovery that genes could move positions on chromosomes. This was heresy. The central dogma of genetics held that genes were fixed in place like beads on a string. When she finished her talk, there was dead silence. She later described the reaction as “puzzlement, even hostility.” Colleagues couldn’t follow her abstract presentation style, and the findings were so far ahead of the field that most geneticists simply didn’t have the framework to understand them. Over the following years, she continued publishing papers supporting her findings and was continually ignored. She had also aligned herself with a theory proposed by the contrarian geneticist Richard Goldschmidt — and was dismissed by association, even though Goldschmidt was wrong and she was not. Eventually she stopped publishing and lecturing on the topic altogether. She wrote in 1973: “It is difficult if not impossible to bring to consciousness of another person the nature of his tacit assumptions.” She kept doing the research quietly at Cold Spring Harbor for decades. When molecular biology finally caught up and confirmed transposable elements in the 1970s, the field realized she had been right all along. She won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1983, at the age of 81 — more than 30 years after her original presentation. She said: “If you know you are on the right track, if you have this inner knowledge, then nobody can turn you off.”
Barry Marshall
In the early 1980s, Marshall and his colleague Robin Warren proposed that stomach ulcers were caused by a bacterium, Helicobacter pylori — not by stress, spicy food, or excess acid, as the medical establishment had believed for decades. Gastroenterologists ridiculed them. The pharmaceutical industry had a massive financial incentive to keep selling acid-suppression drugs. Unable to get anyone to take him seriously, Marshall drank a petri dish of H. pylori bacteria in 1984 to prove his point. He developed gastritis within days, biopsied his own stomach, and demonstrated the bacteria were the cause. Even after that, it took over a decade for the medical community to fully accept the finding. He and Warren won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 2005 — more than 20 years after the initial discovery.
Ignaz Semmelweis
In 1847, Semmelweis was a young Hungarian physician working in the maternity ward of Vienna General Hospital. He noticed that the ward staffed by doctors had a death rate from childbed fever five times higher than the ward staffed by midwives. The difference: doctors were performing autopsies on cadavers and then delivering babies without washing their hands. When Semmelweis instituted a hand-washing policy with chlorinated lime, the death rate plummeted from over 10% to under 2%. The medical establishment rejected his findings. Doctors were offended by the implication that they were killing their own patients. Semmelweis was fired. He was mocked. He grew increasingly erratic and outspoken. In 1865, he was lured to a mental institution, where he was beaten by guards and died within two weeks — possibly from an infection, the very thing he’d spent his career trying to prevent. Germ theory, validated by Pasteur and Lister, proved him completely right within a few years of his death.

P.S. I originally uncovered these ideas and stories in the books “Don’t Trust Your Gut” by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz and “Originals” by Adam Grant. Takeaway: success takes a whole lot of failure and social ridicule—and worst, it may not happen in your lifetime. You may die a “loser.” So if you believe in your idea and you understand your belief in it, keep running until you breathe your last.

, ,

2 responses to “Geniuses Fail More Than You Do”

  1. I am inspired! I think as a perfectionist . . .which I’m sure many of these amazing people fell into that category . . .you want your first try to be “The One”. It can be so hard to “just put it on paper” and let the ideas fly. Would I be willing to die for an idea, for what I believe to be truth . . . even when it is so revolutionary, even if it went against all the “powers that be” who could stomp me and strip me of everything? I love this quote: “God made me fast. And when I run, I feel His pleasure” – Eric Liddell . Isn’t that the same of inventing and creating . . . when God gives us talents and abilities and we are driven to use them . . . then I feel His pleasure!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *